|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Burger' Knight v Giles Taylor (Thu 28 Oct 2021)Match won by Ben 'Burger' Knight. Result: 9-6,7-9,9-6,9-5.Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,183, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Giles Taylor: 738, level confidence: 54%. Ben 'Burger' Knight to win as he is currently playing 196% better than Giles Taylor. Ben 'Burger' Knight won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Burger' Knight played 22% better than Giles Taylor in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben 'Burger' Knight was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,101 and 2,183 without affecting his level. As Ben 'Burger' Knight has played below his allowed range at 996, his level reduction is 10.6% before damping. On the assumption that Ben 'Burger' Knight would normally have been playing at level 1,660 (based on typical behaviour), Giles Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 36%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -5.7% and Giles Taylor changes to +19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -3.3% and for Giles Taylor becomes +10.9%. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -1.5% and for Giles Taylor is +5.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 75%, Giles Taylor: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 48%, Giles Taylor: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,146, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Giles Taylor: 777, level confidence: 47%. Notes
|