|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Burger' Knight v Will Artingstall (Mon 22 Nov 2021)Match won by Will Artingstall. Result: 15-8,6-15,11-15,8-15.Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,244, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Will Artingstall: 1,661, level confidence: 55%. Ben 'Burger' Knight to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Will Artingstall. Will Artingstall won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Artingstall played 27% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Artingstall actually played at a level of 2,180 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 1,710. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Artingstall changes to +25% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Artingstall becomes +10.9% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -10.3%. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Will Artingstall is +5.5% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -4.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Artingstall: 74%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Artingstall: 57%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 55%. A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,192, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Will Artingstall: 1,763, level confidence: 57%. Notes
|