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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Workout Harbourside 2 v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 27 Apr 2022)Match played between Lloyd Jones (home) and Toby Kew (away).Match won by Lloyd Jones. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-5:8-11,3-11,7-11:11-9,6-11,11-9,9-11,8-11:12-14,11-8,4-11,9-11:8-11,11-6,9-11,3-11. Starting level for Lloyd Jones: 3,538, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Toby Kew: 4,774, level confidence: 63%. Toby Kew to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Lloyd Jones. Lloyd Jones won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lloyd Jones played 120% better than Toby Kew in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lloyd Jones actually played at a level of 6,096 and Toby Kew at a level of 2,771. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 72% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 60% and 60% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lloyd Jones changes to +60% and Toby Kew changes to -55%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lloyd Jones becomes +17.4% and for Toby Kew becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Lloyd Jones is +13% and for Toby Kew is -10.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lloyd Jones is limited to +10% and Toby Kew is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lloyd Jones: 77%, Toby Kew: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lloyd Jones: 45%, Toby Kew: 46%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lloyd Jones: 3,886, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Toby Kew: 4,504, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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