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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Tue 15 Feb 2022)Match played between Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (home) and Pehvendran Ravi (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-5. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 1,418, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Pehvendran Ravi: 1,621, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Pehvendran Ravi to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 120% better than Pehvendran Ravi in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 2,249 and Pehvendran Ravi at a level of 1,022. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +54% and Pehvendran Ravi changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +22.1% and for Pehvendran Ravi becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +17% and for Pehvendran Ravi is -9.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is limited to +10% and Pehvendran Ravi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 70%, Pehvendran Ravi: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 44%, Pehvendran Ravi: 55%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 1,557, level confidence: 44%. Final level for Pehvendran Ravi: 1,549, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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