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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redland Capybaras (Wed 06 Apr 2022)Match played between Toby Kew (home) and Rob Jeeves (away).Match won by Toby Kew. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-6:4-11,11-8,11-13,11-0,14-12:4-11,6-11,10-12:12-10,11-8,3-11,11-7:11-8,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Toby Kew: 4,599, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Jeeves: 3,806, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Toby Kew to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Rob Jeeves. Toby Kew won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Kew played 94% better than Rob Jeeves in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Kew actually played at a level of 5,829 and Rob Jeeves at a level of 3,003. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Kew changes to +24% and Rob Jeeves changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Kew becomes +7.7% and for Rob Jeeves becomes -7.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Toby Kew is +5.7% and for Rob Jeeves is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rob Jeeves is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Kew: 86%, Rob Jeeves: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Kew: 68%, Rob Jeeves: 69%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Toby Kew: 4,774, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Rob Jeeves: 3,619, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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