|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 01 Mar 2022)Match played between Pehvendran Ravi (home) and Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood (away).Match won by Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood. Result: 5-15,9-15,10-15. Starting level for Pehvendran Ravi: 1,521, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 2,019, level confidence: 56%. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Pehvendran Ravi. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood played 88% better than Pehvendran Ravi in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood actually played at a level of 2,400 and Pehvendran Ravi at a level of 1,280. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood changes to +16% and Pehvendran Ravi changes to -11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood becomes +7.1% and for Pehvendran Ravi becomes -5.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood is +5.3% and for Pehvendran Ravi is -4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 75%, Pehvendran Ravi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 63%, Pehvendran Ravi: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Pehvendran Ravi: 1,455, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 2,124, level confidence: 63%. Notes
|