|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Sharks v Redwood Phoenix (Thu 10 Mar 2022)Match played between Jake 'Internship' Ireland (home) and Jake West (away).Match won by Jake 'Internship' Ireland. Result: 15-10,15-5,15-10:12-15,15-5,15-13,17-15:15-10,20-18,15-12:12-15,15-12,9-15,15-10,13-15:15-8,15-8,15-8. Starting level for Jake 'Internship' Ireland: 2,705, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Jake West: 2,083, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Jake 'Internship' Ireland to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Jake West. Jake 'Internship' Ireland won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jake 'Internship' Ireland played 80% better than Jake West in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jake 'Internship' Ireland actually played at a level of 3,185 and Jake West at a level of 1,769. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake 'Internship' Ireland changes to +15% and Jake West changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake 'Internship' Ireland becomes +6% and for Jake West becomes -6.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jake 'Internship' Ireland is +4.5% and for Jake West is -5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake 'Internship' Ireland: 88%, Jake West: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake 'Internship' Ireland: 74%, Jake West: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jake 'Internship' Ireland: 2,822, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jake West: 1,981, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|