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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Sharks v Redwood Phoenix (Thu 10 Mar 2022)Match played between Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood (home) and Mark Cornes (away).Match won by Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood. Result: 15-10,20-18,15-12. Starting level for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 2,124, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Mark Cornes: 1,711, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Mark Cornes. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood played 35% better than Mark Cornes in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood actually played at a level of 2,214 and Mark Cornes at a level of 1,641. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood changes to +3.8% and Mark Cornes changes to -3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood becomes +2.6% and for Mark Cornes becomes -2.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood is +1.9% and for Mark Cornes is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 78%, Mark Cornes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 75%, Mark Cornes: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Finlay 'Breakout' Boultwood: 2,157, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Mark Cornes: 1,673, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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