|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 4 (Tue 22 Feb 2022)Match played between Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums (home) and Toby Gibson (away).Match won by Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums. Result: 15-11,15-10,15-3. Starting level for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 1,130, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Toby Gibson: 886, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Toby Gibson. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums played 88% better than Toby Gibson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums actually played at a level of 1,370 and Toby Gibson at a level of 731. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums changes to +18% and Toby Gibson changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums becomes +9.8% and for Toby Gibson becomes -10.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums is +7.3% and for Toby Gibson is -7.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Toby Gibson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 85%, Toby Gibson: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 70%, Toby Gibson: 69%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lewis 'Anger Management' Hallums: 1,211, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Toby Gibson: 852, level confidence: 69%. Notes
|