Division 5: University of Bristol Tryers v Kingswood Originals (Tue 01 Mar 2022)

Match played between Kieran Holmes-Martin (home) and Tomasz Duda (away).
Match won by Tomasz Duda. Result: 5-15,15-9,6-15,12-15.

Starting level for Kieran Holmes-Martin: 618, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Tomasz Duda: 1,495, level confidence: 61%.
Tomasz Duda to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Kieran Holmes-Martin.

Tomasz Duda won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tomasz Duda played 31% better than Kieran Holmes-Martin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tomasz Duda was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 965 and 1,495 without affecting his level.

As Tomasz Duda has played below his allowed range at 883, his level reduction is 9.3% before damping. On the assumption that Tomasz Duda would normally have been playing at level 1,231 (based on typical behaviour), Kieran Holmes-Martin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tomasz Duda changes to -5.9% and Kieran Holmes-Martin changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tomasz Duda becomes -3.8% and for Kieran Holmes-Martin becomes +8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Tomasz Duda is -2.8% and for Kieran Holmes-Martin is +6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tomasz Duda: 78%, Kieran Holmes-Martin: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tomasz Duda: 57%, Kieran Holmes-Martin: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kieran Holmes-Martin: 654, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Tomasz Duda: 1,452, level confidence: 57%.

Notes

• This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
• A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
• Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results - though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
• Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above if this applies to this match.
• The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added weight to the more important matches.
• There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which are not covered here.
• You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better than expected against your opponent.
• We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
• For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file here.
• If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated, please contact us. We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been answered on the help page. We are unable to answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points. Or just be incredibly talented!