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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Westbury David Lloyd A v BAWA A (Wed 02 Mar 2022)Match played between Tejas Ramanan (home) and Sean Adams (away).Match won by Sean Adams. Result: 9-11,10-12,3-11. Starting level for Tejas Ramanan: 1,413, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Sean Adams: 2,688, level confidence: 39%. Sean Adams to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Tejas Ramanan. Sean Adams won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sean Adams played 55% better than Tejas Ramanan in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sean Adams was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,081 and 2,688 without affecting his level. In this case, Sean Adams played at level 2,290 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sean Adams would normally have been playing at level 2,399 (based on typical behaviour), Tejas Ramanan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Adams changes to 0% and Tejas Ramanan changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Adams becomes 0% and for Tejas Ramanan becomes +1.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Sean Adams is 0% and for Tejas Ramanan is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Adams: 62%, Tejas Ramanan: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Adams: 56%, Tejas Ramanan: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tejas Ramanan: 1,431, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Sean Adams: 2,684, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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