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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Lansdown 2 (Wed 26 Jan 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Adam Conisbee (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-6:11-9,11-9,11-7:13-10,12-10,11-7:11-6,5-11,11-1,11-7:11-8,11-9,10-12,11-9. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,646, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Adam Conisbee: 3,531, level confidence: 59%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 173% better than Adam Conisbee. Mark Radley won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 94% better than Adam Conisbee in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Radley was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,614 and 9,646 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Radley played at level 7,210 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Radley would normally have been playing at level 7,584 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Conisbee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to 0% and Adam Conisbee changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes 0% and for Adam Conisbee becomes +1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Adam Conisbee is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 70%, Adam Conisbee: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 59%, Adam Conisbee: 65%. A final adjustment of -1.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 9,306, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Adam Conisbee: 3,568, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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