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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 2 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 02 Mar 2022)Match played between Adam Conisbee (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 7-11,3-11,2-11:9-11,12-10,9-11,4-11:5-11,6-11,6-11:3-11,11-8,7-11,9-11:5-11,9-11,6-11. Starting level for Adam Conisbee: 3,459, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,391, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 171% better than Adam Conisbee. Mark Radley won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 175% better than Adam Conisbee in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 9,451 and Adam Conisbee at a level of 3,437. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +0.3% and Adam Conisbee changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +0.2% and for Adam Conisbee becomes 0%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Adam Conisbee is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 91%, Adam Conisbee: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 91%, Adam Conisbee: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Conisbee: 3,447, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Mark Radley: 9,387, level confidence: 91%. Notes
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