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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 2 v BAWA A (Thu 05 May 2022)Match played between Noah 'No Show' Browne (home) and Richard Colman (away).Match won by Noah 'No Show' Browne. Result: 5-11,11-9,11-2,6-11,12-10. Starting level for Noah 'No Show' Browne: 3,408, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,498, level confidence: 62%. Richard Colman to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Noah 'No Show' Browne. Noah 'No Show' Browne won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Noah 'No Show' Browne played 9% better than Richard Colman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Noah 'No Show' Browne actually played at a level of 4,512 and Richard Colman at a level of 4,153. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne changes to +25% and Richard Colman changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne becomes +8.5% and for Richard Colman becomes -7.5%. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.1% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne is +6.4% and for Richard Colman is -5.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Noah 'No Show' Browne: 79%, Richard Colman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Noah 'No Show' Browne: 60%, Richard Colman: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Noah 'No Show' Browne: 3,620, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,209, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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