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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 2 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 13 Apr 2022)Match played between Alisdair Wriglesworth (home) and Chris Hall (away).Match won by Alisdair Wriglesworth. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,524, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Hall: 2,299, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Alisdair Wriglesworth to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Chris Hall. Alisdair Wriglesworth won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisdair Wriglesworth played 83% better than Chris Hall in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alisdair Wriglesworth actually played at a level of 3,262 and Chris Hall at a level of 1,779. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to +28% and Chris Hall changes to -27%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes +10.3% and for Chris Hall becomes -10.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth is +7.7% and for Chris Hall is -7.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Hall is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 89%, Chris Hall: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 69%, Chris Hall: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,715, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Chris Hall: 2,169, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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