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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 2 (Wed 09 Feb 2022)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Noah 'No Show' Browne (away).Match won by Noah 'No Show' Browne. Result: 9-11,11-4,8-11,8-11. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,496, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Noah 'No Show' Browne: 3,286, level confidence: 60%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Noah 'No Show' Browne. Noah 'No Show' Browne won 75% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Noah 'No Show' Browne played 18% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Noah 'No Show' Browne actually played at a level of 5,384 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 4,575. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 64% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne changes to +6.5% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -39%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne becomes +3.1% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -10%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Noah 'No Show' Browne is +2.3% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -6.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Noah 'No Show' Browne: 77%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Noah 'No Show' Browne: 47%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 19%. A final adjustment of -8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 5,749, level confidence: 19%. Final level for Noah 'No Show' Browne: 3,523, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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