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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 2 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 23 Feb 2022)Match played between Harrison 'Trackies' Hall (home) and Jake Vickery (away).Match won by Jake Vickery. Result: 7-11,1-11,5-11. Starting level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,343, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Jake Vickery: 3,092, level confidence: 46%. Jake Vickery to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall. Jake Vickery won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jake Vickery played 154% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jake Vickery actually played at a level of 4,288 and Harrison 'Trackies' Hall at a level of 1,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake Vickery changes to +33% and Harrison 'Trackies' Hall changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake Vickery becomes +11.1% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall becomes -8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jake Vickery is +8.3% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harrison 'Trackies' Hall is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake Vickery: 68%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake Vickery: 49%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,228, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Jake Vickery: 3,345, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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