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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 16 Mar 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Kirk Woodward (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-3:11-4,11-4,11-2:11-13,13-11,11-3,12-14,11-5:11-8,13-11,11-1:5-11. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,387, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Kirk Woodward: 2,636, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 256% better than Kirk Woodward. Mark Radley won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 267% better than Kirk Woodward in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 9,525 and Kirk Woodward at a level of 2,598. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +0.7% and Kirk Woodward changes to -0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +0.3% and for Kirk Woodward becomes -0.5%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is 0% and for Kirk Woodward is -0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 93%, Kirk Woodward: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 91%, Kirk Woodward: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 9,393, level confidence: 91%. Final level for Kirk Woodward: 2,621, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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