|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 16 Mar 2022)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Asad Choudry (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-2. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 5,749, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Asad Choudry: 3,359, level confidence: 67%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Asad Choudry. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 230% better than Asad Choudry in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 7,983 and Asad Choudry at a level of 2,419. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +29% and Asad Choudry changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +8.3% and for Asad Choudry becomes -6.6%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +6% and for Asad Choudry is -4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 68%, Asad Choudry: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 49%, Asad Choudry: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 5,956, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Asad Choudry: 3,237, level confidence: 59%. Notes
|