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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: BAWA A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 06 Apr 2022)Match played between Chris Wood (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 7-11,1-11,9-11:18-20,11-6,11-6,7-11,8-11:10-12,11-9,9-11,8-11:?-?:?-?. Starting level for Chris Wood: 5,424, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,382, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Chris Wood. Mark Radley won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 94% better than Chris Wood in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 9,939 and Chris Wood at a level of 5,120. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +4.2% and Chris Wood changes to -4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +1.8% and for Chris Wood becomes -2.2%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Chris Wood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +1.2% and for Chris Wood is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 94%, Chris Wood: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 88%, Chris Wood: 86%. A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Wood: 5,467, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Mark Radley: 9,483, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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