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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: BAWA A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 06 Apr 2022)Match played between Richard Colman (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 18-20,11-6,11-6,7-11,8-11. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,350, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,301, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Richard Colman. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 7% better than Richard Colman in this match. As Adam 'The Hulk' Giles has played below his allowed range at 6,245, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles would normally have been playing at level 7,079 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Colman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 9.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -6.6% and Richard Colman changes to +9.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -2.6% and for Richard Colman becomes +3.5%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.7% and for Richard Colman is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 88%, Richard Colman: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 78%, Richard Colman: 72%. A final adjustment of +2.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,498, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,493, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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