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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 2 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Thu 07 Apr 2022)Match played between Harrison 'Trackies' Hall (home) and Richard Dodsworth (away).Match won by Richard Dodsworth. Result: 11-9,11-8,7-11,5-11,8-11. Starting level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,164, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,033, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Richard Dodsworth to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall. Richard Dodsworth won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Dodsworth played 12% better than Harrison 'Trackies' Hall in this match. As Richard Dodsworth has played below his allowed range at 2,607, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Dodsworth would normally have been playing at level 2,926 (based on typical behaviour), Harrison 'Trackies' Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 8.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth changes to -5.8% and Harrison 'Trackies' Hall changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth becomes -3% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall becomes +4.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth is -2.2% and for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall is +3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Dodsworth: 87%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Dodsworth: 78%, Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harrison 'Trackies' Hall: 2,228, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Richard Dodsworth: 2,963, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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