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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v Lansdown 3 (Wed 09 Mar 2022)Match played between Ben Brennan (home) and Alisdair Wriglesworth (away).Match won by Ben Brennan. Result: 15-6,15-5,15-2:15-11,15-7,16-14:15-11,15-8,12-15,10-15,15-7:8-15,14-16,10-15:15-12,15-12,10-15,15-5. Starting level for Ben Brennan: 2,370, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,447, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Alisdair Wriglesworth to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Ben Brennan. Ben Brennan won all of the games and 78% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Brennan played 246% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Brennan actually played at a level of 4,480 and Alisdair Wriglesworth at a level of 1,294. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 89% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Brennan changes to +79% and Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to -87%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Brennan becomes +24.9% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes -27%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Ben Brennan is +19% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth is -19%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Brennan is limited to +10% and Alisdair Wriglesworth is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Brennan: 90%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Brennan: 48%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Brennan: 2,603, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,327, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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