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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v Gordano A (Wed 16 Mar 2022)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Ben Brennan (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 15-6,15-10,15-12:15-12,15-13,15-13:15-3,15-4,15-8:15-9,15-8,15-5:?-?. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,359, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Ben Brennan: 2,603, level confidence: 46%. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Ben Brennan. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 61% better than Ben Brennan in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,901 and 5,359 without affecting his level. In this case, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played at level 4,412 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan would normally have been playing at level 4,654 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Brennan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to 0% and Ben Brennan changes to +3.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes 0% and for Ben Brennan becomes +2.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is 0% and for Ben Brennan is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 83%, Ben Brennan: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 73%, Ben Brennan: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,351, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Ben Brennan: 2,646, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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