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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v Gordano A (Wed 16 Mar 2022)Match played between Ronnie 'O' Sulman (home) and Edwin Swidenbank (away).Match won by Ronnie 'O' Sulman. Result: 15-3,15-4,15-8. Starting level for Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 2,625, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,994, level confidence: 70%. Ronnie 'O' Sulman to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Edwin Swidenbank. Ronnie 'O' Sulman won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ronnie 'O' Sulman played 200% better than Edwin Swidenbank in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ronnie 'O' Sulman actually played at a level of 3,963 and Edwin Swidenbank at a level of 1,321. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman changes to +43% and Edwin Swidenbank changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman becomes +14.5% and for Edwin Swidenbank becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Ronnie 'O' Sulman is +10.9% and for Edwin Swidenbank is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ronnie 'O' Sulman is limited to +10% and Edwin Swidenbank is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 84%, Edwin Swidenbank: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 56%, Edwin Swidenbank: 55%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ronnie 'O' Sulman: 2,883, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,884, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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