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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v Redland Dodos (Wed 23 Mar 2022)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Robert Mills (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 15-6,15-5,15-3:13-15,13-15,15-11,15-17:16-14,15-10,9-15,15-13:15-10,15-11,15-13:15-7,11-15,15-4,15-9. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,351, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Robert Mills: 2,708, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Robert Mills. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 221% better than Robert Mills in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan actually played at a level of 6,825 and Robert Mills at a level of 2,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to +19% and Robert Mills changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes +6% and for Robert Mills becomes -6.9%. Given Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is +4.5% and for Robert Mills is -5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 84%, Robert Mills: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 66%, Robert Mills: 68%. A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,581, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Robert Mills: 2,638, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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