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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v University of Bath 3 (Wed 30 Mar 2022)Match played between Chris Brooks (home) and Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy (away).Match won by Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy. Result: 7-15,7-15,6-15. Starting level for Chris Brooks: 1,931, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 2,445, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Chris Brooks. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy played 125% better than Chris Brooks in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy actually played at a level of 3,259 and Chris Brooks at a level of 1,449. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy changes to +23% and Chris Brooks changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy becomes +8.8% and for Chris Brooks becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy is +6.6% and for Chris Brooks is -8.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Brooks is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 87%, Chris Brooks: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 65%, Chris Brooks: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Brooks: 1,850, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 2,602, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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