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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 26 Jan 2022)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 7-11,6-11,3-11:11-6,11-5,11-9:9-11,11-7,5-11,10-12:7-11,11-5,7-11,7-11:9-11,10-12,5-11. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 10,490, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,661, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Jeremy Harris. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 106% better than Jeremy Harris in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 15,187 and Jeremy Harris at a level of 7,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +33% and Jeremy Harris changes to -42%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +8.2% and for Jeremy Harris becomes -9.9%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +5.1% and for Jeremy Harris is -6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 84%, Jeremy Harris: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 59%, Jeremy Harris: 53%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 9,859, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 11,289, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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