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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 02 Mar 2022)Match played between Arnaud Masset (home) and Adrian Heath (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 11-6,8-11,11-9,11-4. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 6,997, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Adrian Heath: 5,113, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Adrian Heath. Arnaud Masset won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 29% better than Adrian Heath in this match. In this case, Arnaud Masset played at level 6,684 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arnaud Masset would normally have been playing at level 6,780 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Heath played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to 0% and Adrian Heath changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes 0% and for Adrian Heath becomes +0.7%. Given Adrian Heath's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is 0% and for Adrian Heath is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 89%, Adrian Heath: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 87%, Adrian Heath: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 6,987, level confidence: 87%. Final level for Adrian Heath: 5,133, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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