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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 10 Mar 2022)Match played between Hoony Lee (home) and Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 11-9,4-11,12-14,9-11:8-11,4-11,7-11:5-11,8-11,11-6,11-9,4-11:12-14,9-11,11-7,11-3,10-12:11-9,11-8,5-11,8-11,6-11. Starting level for Hoony Lee: 8,098, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 13,381, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Hoony Lee. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 25% better than Hoony Lee in this match. As Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson has played below his allowed range at 10,731, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson would normally have been playing at level 12,450 (based on typical behaviour), Hoony Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 8.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to -3.9% and Hoony Lee changes to +8.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes -1.6% and for Hoony Lee becomes +2.9%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change. Given Hoony Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is -1% and for Hoony Lee is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 87%, Hoony Lee: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 76%, Hoony Lee: 70%. A final adjustment of -1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hoony Lee: 8,238, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 12,966, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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