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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside (Wed 16 Mar 2022)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Adrian Heath (away).Match won by Adrian Heath. Result: 11-9,5-11,7-11,11-6,7-11:12-10,9-11,5-11,7-11:13-15,9-11,11-6,11-7,12-10:9-11,8-11,8-11:7-11,8-11,7-11. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 6,689, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Adrian Heath: 5,141, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Adrian Heath. Adrian Heath won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Heath played 12% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Heath actually played at a level of 6,200 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 5,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Heath changes to +11% and Rusty Pearce changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Heath becomes +4% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -5.5%. Given Adrian Heath's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Adrian Heath is +3% and for Rusty Pearce is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Heath: 88%, Rusty Pearce: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Heath: 73%, Rusty Pearce: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 6,435, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Adrian Heath: 5,286, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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