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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v University of Bath 1 (Wed 09 Feb 2022)Match played between Jared London (home) and Antoine Riehl (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 11-7,11-8,10-12,11-4:7-11,4-11,11-13:11-6,5-11,4-11,6-11:?-?:?-?. Starting level for Jared London: 12,075, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 8,040, level confidence: 53%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Antoine Riehl. Jared London won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 30% better than Antoine Riehl in this match. As Jared London has played below his allowed range at 10,604, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Jared London would normally have been playing at level 11,489 (based on typical behaviour), Antoine Riehl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to -1.3% and Antoine Riehl changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes -0.6% and for Antoine Riehl becomes +1.8%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jared London is -0.4% and for Antoine Riehl is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 80%, Antoine Riehl: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 74%, Antoine Riehl: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 12,013, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 8,128, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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