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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v David Lloyd A (Thu 28 Apr 2022)Match played between Antoine Riehl (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Antoine Riehl. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6:11-4,12-10,11-5:2-11,10-12,5-11:8-11,4-11,13-15:?-?. Starting level for Antoine Riehl: 8,006, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 6,169, level confidence: 65%. Antoine Riehl to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Rusty Pearce. Antoine Riehl won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antoine Riehl played 120% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antoine Riehl actually played at a level of 10,424 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 4,738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl changes to +25% and Rusty Pearce changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antoine Riehl becomes +7% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -7.6%. Given Antoine Riehl's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Antoine Riehl is +4.7% and for Rusty Pearce is -5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antoine Riehl: 82%, Rusty Pearce: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antoine Riehl: 63%, Rusty Pearce: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antoine Riehl: 8,369, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,848, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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