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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v University of Bath 1 (Wed 23 Mar 2022)Match played between Grant Jones (home) and Raunak Singh (away).Match won by Raunak Singh. Result: 9-11,7-11,6-11. Starting level for Grant Jones: 3,006, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Raunak Singh: 6,303, level confidence: 35%. Raunak Singh to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Grant Jones. Raunak Singh won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raunak Singh played 52% better than Grant Jones in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raunak Singh was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,531 and 6,303 without affecting his level. In this case, Raunak Singh played at level 4,981 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Raunak Singh would normally have been playing at level 5,443 (based on typical behaviour), Grant Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raunak Singh changes to 0% and Grant Jones changes to +3.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raunak Singh becomes 0% and for Grant Jones becomes +2.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Raunak Singh is 0% and for Grant Jones is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raunak Singh: 59%, Grant Jones: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raunak Singh: 50%, Grant Jones: 68%. A final adjustment of -2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Grant Jones: 3,043, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Raunak Singh: 6,074, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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