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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 23 Mar 2022)Match played between Hoony Lee (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 7-11,10-12,11-6,11-9,8-11:11-9,9-11,11-9,5-11,9-11:8-11,11-6,11-8,9-11,7-11:11-13,11-8,11-6,7-11,11-5:6-11,11-6,7-11,11-7,5-11. Starting level for Hoony Lee: 8,238, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,991, level confidence: 65%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Hoony Lee. Jack Alcock won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 9% better than Hoony Lee in this match. As Jack Alcock has played below his allowed range at 9,618, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 10,698 (based on typical behaviour), Hoony Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 8.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to -6.5% and Hoony Lee changes to +7.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes -2.3% and for Hoony Lee becomes +2.8%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Given Hoony Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is -1.4% and for Hoony Lee is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 80%, Hoony Lee: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 73%, Hoony Lee: 74%. A final adjustment of -1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hoony Lee: 8,874, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,903, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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