|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v Redland Anacondas (Thu 17 Feb 2022)Match played between Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson (home) and Jared London (away).Match won by Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson. Result: 12-10,9-11,11-5,11-9:11-8,11-4,11-5:11-8,10-12,11-8,8-11,11-3:11-6,11-4,11-6:11-5,11-5,8-11,9-11,9-11. Starting level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 14,084, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Jared London: 12,013, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Jared London. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson played 24% better than Jared London in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson actually played at a level of 14,501 and Jared London at a level of 11,667. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson changes to +2.7% and Jared London changes to -2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson becomes +1.3% and for Jared London becomes -1.2%. Given Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson is +0.7% and for Jared London is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 79%, Jared London: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 77%, Jared London: 82%. A final adjustment of -3.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'Cuddles' Anderson: 13,381, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Jared London: 11,842, level confidence: 82%. Notes
|