|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v David Lloyd A (Wed 30 Mar 2022)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Bradley Clare (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-7:11-4,8-11,9-11,11-2,11-8:11-9,11-4,11-4:11-3,11-6,11-8:11-6,12-10,11-6. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,903, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 6,802, level confidence: 57%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Bradley Clare. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 94% better than Bradley Clare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 11,435 and Bradley Clare at a level of 5,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +9.1% and Bradley Clare changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +3% and for Bradley Clare becomes -4.2%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1.9% and for Bradley Clare is -2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 90%, Bradley Clare: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 78%, Bradley Clare: 66%. A final adjustment of -2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,046, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Bradley Clare: 6,308, level confidence: 66%. Notes
|