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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Ballers v University of Bath 1 (Thu 24 Feb 2022)Match played between James 'Dribble' Woods (home) and Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray (away).Match won by James 'Dribble' Woods. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-9. Starting level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 5,993, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 3,636, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. James 'Dribble' Woods to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray. James 'Dribble' Woods won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James 'Dribble' Woods played 47% better than Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray in this match. In this case, James 'Dribble' Woods played at level 5,466 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James 'Dribble' Woods would normally have been playing at level 5,580 (based on typical behaviour), Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods changes to 0% and Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods becomes 0% and for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray becomes +0.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for James 'Dribble' Woods is 0% and for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James 'Dribble' Woods: 80%, Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James 'Dribble' Woods: 76%, Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 5,975, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Jonny 'Four Cans' Murray: 3,658, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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