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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v University of Bath Ladies A (Thu 17 Mar 2022)Match played between Ruth Drysdale (home) and Freya 'No Strokes' Porter (away).Match won by Ruth Drysdale. Result: 15-3,16-14,15-2. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 702, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Freya 'No Strokes' Porter: 201, level confidence: 24%. Ruth Drysdale to win as she is currently playing 249% better than Freya 'No Strokes' Porter. Ruth Drysdale won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 142% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ruth Drysdale played 142% better than Freya 'No Strokes' Porter in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ruth Drysdale was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 319 and 702 without affecting her level. In this case, Ruth Drysdale played at level 490 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ruth Drysdale would normally have been playing at level 494 (based on typical behaviour), Freya 'No Strokes' Porter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale changes to 0% and Freya 'No Strokes' Porter changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale becomes 0% and for Freya 'No Strokes' Porter becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale is 0% and for Freya 'No Strokes' Porter is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ruth Drysdale: 90%, Freya 'No Strokes' Porter: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ruth Drysdale: 75%, Freya 'No Strokes' Porter: 41%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 701, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Freya 'No Strokes' Porter: 201, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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