|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Lynx v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 31 Mar 2022)Match played between Karen De Klerk (home) and Helen Garrott (away).Match won by Helen Garrott. Result: 5-15,7-15,5-15. Starting level for Karen De Klerk: 866, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Helen Garrott: 1,153, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Helen Garrott to win as she is currently playing 33% better than Karen De Klerk. Helen Garrott won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 165% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Garrott played 165% better than Karen De Klerk in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Helen Garrott actually played at a level of 1,626 and Karen De Klerk at a level of 614. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Garrott changes to +25% and Karen De Klerk changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Garrott becomes +12.6% and for Karen De Klerk becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Helen Garrott is +9.4% and for Karen De Klerk is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karen De Klerk is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Garrott: 86%, Karen De Klerk: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Garrott: 61%, Karen De Klerk: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Karen De Klerk: 824, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Helen Garrott: 1,246, level confidence: 61%. Notes
|