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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath Ladies A v Redland Winter Lynx (Thu 03 Mar 2022)Match played between Lamme Leung (home) and Nicola Hardwick (away).Match won by Nicola Hardwick. Result: 8-15,8-15,10-15. Starting level for Lamme Leung: 1,023, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Nicola Hardwick: 1,177, level confidence: 92%. Set manually. Nicola Hardwick to win as she is currently playing 15% better than Lamme Leung. Nicola Hardwick won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicola Hardwick played 73% better than Lamme Leung in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicola Hardwick actually played at a level of 1,444 and Lamme Leung at a level of 834. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicola Hardwick changes to +17% and Lamme Leung changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicola Hardwick becomes +9% and for Lamme Leung becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Nicola Hardwick is +6.7% and for Lamme Leung is -8.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lamme Leung is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicola Hardwick: 96%, Lamme Leung: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicola Hardwick: 78%, Lamme Leung: 70%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lamme Leung: 989, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Nicola Hardwick: 1,258, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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