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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath Ladies A v Lansdown A (Thu 12 May 2022)Match played between Claire Spouse (home) and Wendy Harrison (away).Match won by Wendy Harrison. Result: 11-15,11-15,11-15. Starting level for Claire Spouse: 276, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Wendy Harrison: 751, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Wendy Harrison to win as she is currently playing 172% better than Claire Spouse. Wendy Harrison won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wendy Harrison played 43% better than Claire Spouse in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Wendy Harrison was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 439 and 751 without affecting her level. As Wendy Harrison has played below her allowed range at 415, her level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Wendy Harrison would normally have been playing at level 591 (based on typical behaviour), Claire Spouse played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wendy Harrison changes to -1.8% and Claire Spouse changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wendy Harrison becomes -1.8% and for Claire Spouse becomes +8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Wendy Harrison is -1.4% and for Claire Spouse is +6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wendy Harrison: 87%, Claire Spouse: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wendy Harrison: 63%, Claire Spouse: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Claire Spouse: 290, level confidence: 47%. Final level for Wendy Harrison: 743, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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