|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesHannah Yogasundram v Philip Gittings (Wed 09 Feb 2022)Match won by Hannah Yogasundram. Result: 15-9,20-18,15-5.Starting level for Hannah Yogasundram: 720, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Philip Gittings: 338, level confidence: 42%. Hannah Yogasundram to win as she is currently playing 113% better than Philip Gittings. Hannah Yogasundram won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 56% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Yogasundram played 56% better than Philip Gittings in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hannah Yogasundram was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 493 and 720 without affecting her level. In this case, Hannah Yogasundram played at level 571 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Hannah Yogasundram would normally have been playing at level 619 (based on typical behaviour), Philip Gittings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Yogasundram changes to 0% and Philip Gittings changes to +5.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Yogasundram becomes 0% and for Philip Gittings becomes +4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Hannah Yogasundram is 0% and for Philip Gittings is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Yogasundram: 76%, Philip Gittings: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Yogasundram: 65%, Philip Gittings: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Hannah Yogasundram: 719, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Philip Gittings: 345, level confidence: 55%. Notes
|