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Login: | Explaining level changesNye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams v Ben 'Burger' Knight (Fri 18 Feb 2022)Match won by Ben 'Burger' Knight. Result: 6-15,13-15,15-6,15-13,11-15.Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,238, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,155, level confidence: 61%. Ben 'Burger' Knight to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Ben 'Burger' Knight won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Burger' Knight played 9% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. As Ben 'Burger' Knight has played below his allowed range at 1,566, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Ben 'Burger' Knight would normally have been playing at level 1,977 (based on typical behaviour), Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -12% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -5.5% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +6.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Challenge' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 78%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Burger' Knight: 62%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 74%. A final adjustment of +1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,315, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,122, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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