|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 19 May 2022)Match played between Stephen Thompson (home) and James 'Dribble' Woods (away).Match won by Stephen Thompson. Result: 11-7,11-5,9-11,11-7. Starting level for Stephen Thompson: 7,438, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 6,259, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Stephen Thompson to win as he is currently playing 19% better than James 'Dribble' Woods. Stephen Thompson won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Thompson played 30% better than James 'Dribble' Woods in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Thompson actually played at a level of 7,778 and James 'Dribble' Woods at a level of 5,985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson changes to +4.2% and James 'Dribble' Woods changes to -3.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Thompson becomes +1.9% and for James 'Dribble' Woods becomes -1.9%. Given Stephen Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change. Given James 'Dribble' Woods's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Play-off 2021/2022' so the adjustment for Stephen Thompson is +1.3% and for James 'Dribble' Woods is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Thompson: 84%, James 'Dribble' Woods: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Thompson: 80%, James 'Dribble' Woods: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Stephen Thompson: 7,524, level confidence: 80%. Final level for James 'Dribble' Woods: 6,167, level confidence: 85%. Notes
|