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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v Redland Summer D (Tue 09 Aug 2022)Match played between Robin Clegg (home) and Matt Clark (away).Match won by Matt Clark. Result: 11-15,7-15,6-15. Starting level for Robin Clegg: 725, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Matt Clark: 1,698, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Matt Clark to win as he is currently playing 134% better than Robin Clegg. Matt Clark won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Clark played 88% better than Robin Clegg in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matt Clark was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,105 and 1,698 without affecting his level. In this case, Matt Clark played at level 1,386 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matt Clark would normally have been playing at level 1,414 (based on typical behaviour), Robin Clegg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Clark changes to 0% and Robin Clegg changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Clark becomes 0% and for Robin Clegg becomes +1.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Matt Clark is 0% and for Robin Clegg is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Clark: 90%, Robin Clegg: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Clark: 80%, Robin Clegg: 77%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Robin Clegg: 733, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Matt Clark: 1,702, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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