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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Gordano A v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 03 Aug 2022)Match played between Nick Hand (home) and Will Cheek (away).Match won by Nick Hand. Result: 15-8,15-8,15-7. Starting level for Nick Hand: 2,717, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Will Cheek: 1,063, level confidence: 67%. Nick Hand to win as he is currently playing 156% better than Will Cheek. Nick Hand won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hand played 96% better than Will Cheek in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Hand was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,641 and 2,717 without affecting his level. In this case, Nick Hand played at level 2,135 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Hand would normally have been playing at level 2,192 (based on typical behaviour), Will Cheek played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hand changes to 0% and Will Cheek changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hand becomes 0% and for Will Cheek becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Nick Hand is 0% and for Will Cheek is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hand: 81%, Will Cheek: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hand: 71%, Will Cheek: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Hand: 2,724, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Will Cheek: 1,077, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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