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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redland Summer C (Wed 29 Jun 2022)Match played between Peter Slater Jones (home) and Giles Sharley (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 11-15,3-15,8-15. Starting level for Peter Slater Jones: 985, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 2,686, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 173% better than Peter Slater Jones. Giles Sharley won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 105% better than Peter Slater Jones in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Giles Sharley was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,529 and 2,686 without affecting his level. In this case, Giles Sharley played at level 2,063 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Giles Sharley would normally have been playing at level 2,113 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Slater Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to 0% and Peter Slater Jones changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes 0% and for Peter Slater Jones becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is 0% and for Peter Slater Jones is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 89%, Peter Slater Jones: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 77%, Peter Slater Jones: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Peter Slater Jones: 993, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Giles Sharley: 2,682, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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