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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: David Lloyd A v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 25 May 2022)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Mark Radley (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 7-11,2-11,2-11:14-12,11-6,11-4:11-6,13-11,11-13,11-6:7-11,12-14,5-11. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 6,308, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Mark Radley: 9,600, level confidence: 70%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Bradley Clare. Mark Radley won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 200% better than Bradley Clare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 13,479 and Bradley Clare at a level of 4,493. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +24% and Bradley Clare changes to -32%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +6.3% and for Bradley Clare becomes -8.9%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +3.1% and for Bradley Clare is -5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 84%, Bradley Clare: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 60%, Bradley Clare: 52%. A final adjustment of +18% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 6,968, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Mark Radley: 11,882, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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