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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v David Lloyd A (Wed 06 Jul 2022)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Bradley Clare (away).Match won by Bradley Clare. Result: 11-5,11-13,11-4,6-11,7-11:11-8,11-6,3-11,11-9:5-11,11-6,11-9,11-9:?-?. Starting level for Mark Radley: 12,337, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 7,053, level confidence: 64%. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Bradley Clare. Bradley Clare won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bradley Clare played 6% better than Mark Radley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bradley Clare actually played at a level of 9,623 and Mark Radley at a level of 9,043. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bradley Clare changes to +23% and Mark Radley changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bradley Clare becomes +6.6% and for Mark Radley becomes -6.5%. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2022' so the adjustment for Bradley Clare is +3.7% and for Mark Radley is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bradley Clare: 80%, Mark Radley: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bradley Clare: 59%, Mark Radley: 55%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 12,340, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Bradley Clare: 7,345, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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